- Gold price extends winning spell as investors see the Fed keeping interest rates on hold.
- The Fed is expected to announce an unchanged interest rate decision amid falling inflation and upbeat economic prospects.
- Worries about an economic slowdown due to “higher interest rates for longer” linger despite the US economic resilience.
Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to attract bids ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. The yellow metal extended its three-day winning spell on Tuesday as the Fed is expected to maintain the status quo on the grounds of falling inflation and an upbeat economic outlook.
Investors remain curious about the guidance on interest rates as a hawkish outlook would trigger a risk-aversion theme. Markets are pricing in that the Fed is done with hiking rates until year-end, and hopes for the US economy shifting on a “golden path” are high. The only factor that could keep expectations of one more interest rate increase is rising energy prices, which may contribute to inflation and further squeeze households’ real incomes.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price extends recovery
- Gold price extends its upside momentum above $1,930 as investors see the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% after its September monetary policy meeting. The decision will be announced on Wednesday.
- The precious metal kept attracting bids from the past three trading sessions as the upside in the US Dollar is expected to remain restricted on expectations of unchanged rates.
- US inflation is falling and the labor market is resilient despite higher interest rates, allowing policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged.
- The recent rise in Oil prices is exerting pressure on inflation but Fed policymakers generally consider core inflation, which doesn’t include energy prices, while framing monetary policy.
- For the interest rate guidance, the Fed is expected to keep the doors open for further policy tightening to ensure price stability.
- The Fed could keep interest rates elevated long enough to bring down inflation to 2%. This is likely to continue to build pressure on the US economy, particularly for the manufacturing and housing sectors.
- Any discussion about rate cuts would improve the appeal for the risk-perceived assets and dampen the US Dollar. Economists at Goldman Sachs expect Fed officials to signal a full percentage point of cuts next year but to keep expectations of one more interest rate increase this year to a range of 5.50%-5.75%.
- Worries about an economic slowdown due to higher interest rates for longer linger despite the current economic resilience. Shorter-term US Treasury yields have surpassed the yields offered in longer time frames, a situation that has historically indicated risks of a potential recession.
- As per the CME Group Fedwatch Tool, traders undoubtedly see interest rates remaining steady at 5.25%-5.50% after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. For the rest of the year, traders anticipate almost a 58% chance for the Fed to also keep monetary policy unchanged.
- About the US economic outlook, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said that she doesn’t see any signs that the economy will enter into a downturn as inflation is coming down and the labor market is quite strong.
- However, Yellen warned that a failure by Congress to pass the legislation to keep the government in control could elevate the risk of an economic slowdown.
- Later this week, investors will watch the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI September data to be reported by S&P Global. US factory activity has remained vulnerable due to higher interest rates. Firms are focusing on achieving efficiency by controlling costs in a deteriorating demand environment.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) seems well-supported above the crucial 105.00 level. Investors keep pumping money into the USD Index due to deepening fears of a global slowdown in a high-interest rate environment.
Technical Analysis: Gold price extends three-day winning streak
Gold price resumes its three-day winning spell as the Fed is expected to keep the monetary policy unchanged on Wednesday. The precious metal is at a two-week high at around $1,935.00 after discovering buying interest near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades at around $1,910.00. The yellow metal has climbed above the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, which indicates that the short-term trend has turned bullish.
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.